No, George Bush came to town yesterday for one reason: to save Randy Kuhl. Randy's seat in the 29th district, which gerrymanders into Southeast Monroe County, is no longer the safe seat that it's been for the last two decades.
Though local commentators have already tagged Randy as troubled, I'll go one step further: in 2006, as Kuhl goes, so goes the House.
By the numbers, Randy should have an easy win. Though he's a freshman, he represents a district with a large Republican plurality. He beat his Democratic opponent in the last election by a 10 points. In any other year, Air Force One's only reason for landing at ROC in March would be engine trouble.
But, this year, Randy has a two major problems. The first is his voting record. Since his election in 2004, he's voted with the majority in the House on every bill except three:
- He voted against extending stem cell research.
- He didn't support an extension of assistance for Katrina victims.
- He didn't like some changes to the $1 coin.
Setting aside Randy's courageous stance on the $1 coin, his only anti-majority votes have been on bills with a bipartisan majority of moderate Democrats and Republicans.
In other words, Kuhl has never voted against the President on a substantial issue. Unlike his predecessor Amo Houghton, who voted against the war in Iraq, Randy is in the President's pocket. With Bush's approval rating below 40% and heading south, that's a major liability.
Randy's second problem is his opponent. In the last election, Randy went up against young, inexperienced Sam Barend. Sam made a few mistakes in her campaign, most notably when she tried to make Randy's nasty divorce a campaign issue. She was also a 26-year-old running her first campaign in a district where the median age increased 4 years (to around 38) in the last census.
This year, Randy's likely opponent is a 24-year Navy veteran and cancer survivor, Eric Massa. Massa is part of the Democrats' Band of Brothers, a group of almost 60 veterans who are running for Congress. Most of the superficial reasons to vote against Barend won't be around this time, and Massa will be able to make hay with his longstanding opposition to the war in Iraq.
Based on Randy's weakness and his opponent's strength, liberal blogs like the Daily Kos or Huffington Post would have us believe that the 29th is going to swing to the Democrats.
I'm not so sure. Bush's visit is just the first act in the rarest of political spectacles: a contested House race. It was carefully targeted to influence elderly voters, a critical Kuhl constituency. Plus, it was just the beginning -- Kuhl's loyalty should buy him some more substantial favors. For starters, Bush will probably spare the Canandaigua VA hospital for at least another year. If Randy's lucky, expect an announcement to that effect a couple of weeks before the election.
Bush is right to pull out all the stops supporting his man Randy, because something far more important than Kuhl's seat is at stake. If a party-line freshman conservative in a historically Republican district like the 29th loses, then there are a bunch of other seats that will likely swing. If he wins, then the Republicans will probably be able to hold the House.
My advice to Randy: start updating your website. Replace this Rummy grip-and-grin with a shot of you and J-Mac. A least J-Mac's team has won one recently.
